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‏لا عودة إلى حمص: دراسة حالة عن الهندسة الديموغرافية في سورية

No Return to Homs cover

معهد سورية بالتعاون مع المنظمة الشريكة باكس سعيدون بنشر الترجمة العربية لتقريرهم الرائد: “‏لا عودة إلى حمص: دراسة حالة عن الهندسة الديموغرافية في سورية.”

 

في عام ٢٠١٤ ‏خضع أول مركز حضري رئيسي لحصار الحكومة السورية واستراتيجية التدمير. في “لا عودة إلى حمص”، ‏تمت مقابلة ‏سكان المدينة السابقين لفهم كيفية تنفيذ استراتيجية التهجير السكاني الموجهة من قبل الدولة، وما آثارها حتى يومنا هذا. ‏ولا تزال نتائج التقرير تزداد أهمية، حيث “نموذج حمص” من حصار وتهجير السكان ومصادرة الممتلكات استخدم كمخطط لتدمير وتهجير السكان من مناطق أخرى رئيسية مثل داريا في ريف دمشق و شرقي حلب.

 

‏إن نتائج تقرير “لا عودة إلى حمص” كانت مؤثرة في صياغة استراتيجية الاتحاد الأوروبي بشأن سورية في أبريل / نيسان  2017، والتي ذكرت أن “اﻻﺗﺣﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ ﻟن ﯾﺷﺎرك ﻓﻲ اﻻﻧﺗﻌﺎش اﻟﻣﺑﻛر / ﺟﮭود اﻻﺳﺗﻘرار اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﺗدﻋم اﻟﮭﻧدﺳﺔ اﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ واﻟدﯾﻣوﻏراﻓﯾﺔ.”

 

‏إن حجم ونطاق وطبيعة التهجير القسري من أماكن مثل مدينة حمص يشكل تحدياً هائلاً أمام الاستقرار في سوريا مستقبلاً. ‏ولن تكون المصالحة الوطنية قادرة على المضي قدماً ‏من دون معالجة مسائل معقدة تتعلق بالعودة الطوعية وحقوق الملكية. ‏إن جهود إعادة البناء المبكرة في أماكن مثل مدينة حمص التي ‏تفشل في الأخذ بعين الاعتبار أوضاع المُهجرين، قد تعزز المظالم وتعمق.

اقرأ التقرير هنا.

Siege Watch Seventh Quarterly Report, May-July 2017

The Seventh Quarterly Siege Watch Report details conditions for at least 821,210 people living in more than 34 besieged communities in Syria. The Syrian government and its allies remain responsible for the majority of existing sieges, as well as all “Watchlist” areas, where more than 1.7 million additional Syrians face the threat of intensified siege and abuse.

Notably, al-Raqqa city was added to the Siege Watch “Watchlist” after being surrounded by US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in June. This is the first time the US-led Global Coalition and its SDF partners have been implicated in the prolonged siege of a civilian population in Syria. Reports from the ground suggest that the SDF and the Global Coalition are violating international humanitarian law by launching indiscriminate attacks on civilians trapped in the city and those trying to flee.

Two more “Watchlist” communities – Barzeh and Qaboun – capitulated to the Syrian government’s “surrender or die” strategy, and both were subjected to forced population transfers. Qaboun was completely depopulated as a result of these transfers and was removed from all Siege Watch monitoring efforts. The final forced population transfers from al-Waer neighborhood also occurred during the reporting period after it succumbed to the government’s scorched earth tactics last quarter, and it was subsequently reclassified from “besieged” to the project’s “Watchlist.”

Eastern Ghouta – the largest remaining besieged enclave in the country – is the most likely target of the Syrian government’s next major “surrender or die” campaign, putting more than 420,000 people at risk. The front lines of Eastern Ghouta and Jobar were targeted with at least six suspected chemical attacks in June and July 2017. In one these attacks, the victims displayed symptoms consistent with exposure to a nerve agent, indicating a dangerous tactical escalation by pro-government forces.

This seventh quarterly report also documents the continued abuses faced by civilians who remain in post-surrender communities after they revert to government control. In communities like Wadi Barada, the widespread confiscation of property, destruction of property records, and continued access restrictions all point to state-led efforts to permanently alter the areas’ demographic composition and prevent displaced civilians from ever returning home.

The forced deportation of civilian populations, along with the other collective punishment tactics of the sieges, constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. All signs indicate that the Syrian government – emboldened by the lack of international response – will continue to intensify and expand its efforts to subdue besieged communities through violence, coercion, and depopulation in the coming months.

Key Recommendations:

  • The US-led Global Coalition against Daesh and its local partners must ensure that its combat operations in al-Raqqa are in compliance with the laws of war. They must provide safe passage for civilians escaping ISIS-controlled parts of al-Raqqa, and ensure that internally displaced persons (IDPs) are treated humanely and provided with necessary care and provisions.
  • The UN and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) should immediately open investigations into the recent suspected chemical attacks in Eastern Ghouta and Jobar.
  • International stakeholders, including the UN Security Council, must increase political pressure on besieging parties and their allies to prevent Eastern Ghouta – the largest remaining besieged enclave in the country – from becoming the next eastern Aleppo.
  • International monitors should be immediately deployed into post-surrender communities to ensure that vulnerable civilians are not being subjected to continuing human rights and international humanitarian law (IHL) violations.
  • Agencies working on early recovery initiatives in post-surrender communities in cooperation with the Syrian government should take measures to protect the housing, land, and property rights of forcibly displaced civilians.

Download the PDF here.

Siege Watch Fifth Quarterly Report, November 2016-January 2017

The Fifth Quarterly Siege Watch Report details conditions for at least 913,575 people living in more than 37 besieged communities in Syria. The Syrian government and its allies remained responsible for the majority of existing sieges, as well as all “Watchlist” areas, where more than 1.3 million additional Syrians face the threat of complete siege.

During the November 2016-January 2017 reporting period, the government’s “surrender or die” strategy reached new heights with the scorched earth campaign to recapture eastern Aleppo. The increased pace of forced surrender agreements in besieged and “Watchlist” communities continued, with al-Tal, Khan al-Shieh, and Wadi Barada all capitulating in the face of increased attacks and threats. Communities that surrender are forced to accept conditions that leave their residents vulnerable to further abuse and persecution, and all of the surrenders entail partial population transfers of both fighters and civilians. These forced population transfers are war crimes and may amount to crimes against humanity.

Since the end of the reporting period on January 31, the critically besieged neighborhood of al-Waer capitulated to government and Russian surrender terms to avoid a complete humanitarian disaster. An estimated 15,000-20,000 people, mainly civilians, will be forcibly transferred from the neighborhood under the terms of the deal over a two month implementation period that began on March 18.

Humanitarian conditions in besieged communities continued to deteriorate as a result of increased violence and decreased humanitarian access, with December and January representing two of the worst months ever for UN aid convoys. Attacks targeting civilian residential areas and critical services such as hospitals, schools, and Civil Defense centers continued at an alarming rate despite the nationwide ceasefire announced in late December 2016. Russian airpower and Iranian-backed militias continued to play a central role in enforcing Syria’s sieges, and both countries participated in local forced surrender negotiations.

Although the official UN population figures for besieged areas have increased significantly since Siege Watch began monitoring in late 2015, their estimates still fall short of the reality on the ground. For the fifth quarter in a row, Siege Watch data indicates a much larger problem than the UN monthly reporting, which recognizes only 643,780 people in 13 besieged communities as of 31 January 2017. The bulk of this discrepancy is due to the fact that the UN reporting still fails to acknowledge the long-term sieges of communities in northern Homs and southern Damascus.

Key Recommendations:

  • Ending Sieges: The UN Security Council must act on its commitment to enforce Resolution 2139 (2014), which called upon all parties “to immediately lift the sieges of populated areas,” and threatened further steps in the case of non-compliance.
  • Monitoring: International monitors should be immediately deployed into post-surrender communities to ensure that vulnerable civilians are not being subjected to continuing human rights and international humanitarian law (IHL) violations. UN agencies should also send monitors to oversee local forced surrender agreements when requested.
  • Reporting: Decision-making regarding UN OCHA’s besieged community designations should be moved out of the Damascus hub. Relevant data should be compiled and analyzed in a more neutral environment where it will be less vulnerable to political pressures.
  • Accountability: War crimes and crimes against humanity committed in the framework of sieges, such as starvation and forced population transfers, must be incorporated in the accountability mechanism that will be established in accordance with the UN General Assembly Resolution of 21 December 2016.

Download the PDF here.

No Return to Homs: A case study on demographic engineering in Syria

The Syria Institute and PAX published a new report today entitled: “No Return to Homs: A case study on demographic engineering in Syria.” No Return to Homs explores the mechanisms and impacts of state-directed population displacement in Syria through a case study of Homs city, which in 2014 became the first major urban center to succumb to the government’s siege and destroy strategy. Former residents of Homs city were interviewed to understand how the state-directed population displacement strategy was carried out in Homs city, and how it impacts the future of that city today. The ‘Homs model’ has served as a blueprint for the destruction and depopulation of other key locations such as Darayya in Rural Damascus and Eastern Aleppo today.

Between 2012 and 2014, the Syrian military and affiliated militias systematically displaced more than half of the population in Homs city. Their tactics included: detention, torture, rape, massacres, full-scale military assault with ground and air assets, siege, and the targeted destruction of civilian infrastructure. Displaced residents of Homs continued to face persecution even after their initial displacement and many are still trapped under siege in other parts of the governorate. Interviewees identified a long list of physical and administrative barriers created by the Syrian government that prevent them from returning to their homes. As a result, they are effectively excluded from rebuilding efforts undertaken by the Syrian government in cooperation with UN agencies with the support of foreign donor states.

This report shows that the government’s displacement strategy in Homs city is a form of demographic engineering, which seeks to permanently manipulate the population along sectarian lines in order to consolidate the government’s power base. Under these conditions, international support for government efforts to rebuild the Homs neighborhoods that it intentionally destroyed and depopulated may serve to incentivize similar atrocities elsewhere by paying the government “war crimes dividends,” instead of holding it accountable.

The scale, scope, and nature of forced displacements from places like Homs city present a formidable challenge to future stability in Syria. National reconciliation will be unable to move forward without addressing complex issues of repatriation and property rights. Premature rebuilding efforts in places like Homs city that fail to account for the displaced may reinforce injustices, deepen sectarian schisms, and create new grievances that will undermine progress towards a solution and lay the groundwork for future conflict.

“No Return to Homs” was a joint effort of The Syria Institute and PAX, a Dutch peace building NGO.

Download the PDF here.

MEE coverage of new Siege Watch report

More than a million people still under siege in Syria, says report

#SyriaWar

Transfer of formerly besieged civilians into areas which are also cut-off means little overall drop in number of war’s trapped non-combatants

Last update: Tuesday 13 September 2016 14:20 UTC

More than a million Syrians remain under siege even as the current US-Russia brokered ceasefire came into force, according to a damning report released by monitoring group Siege Watch on Tuesday.

The organisation, a joint project of the PAX peace organisation and the Syria Institute, said that more than a million people remain trapped in at least 40 besieged communities across the country as of July.

While Siege Watch acknowledged that thousands of people have since been brought out of the besieged Damascus district of Daraya, the report stressed that prior to this many civilians from rebel-held areas were often just transferred to other areas under siege, greatly limiting the overall drop in the number of Syrians trapped by fighting.

The group said that a further 1.4 million Syrians were on its watchlist as being under the threat of siege and Siege Watch urgently called on the international community to act.

“The situation for besieged Syrians appears grim. Six Siege Watch besieged communities were captured by force during the reporting period, displacing tens of thousands of people. Not a single siege was lifted through diplomatic means.”

The evacuation of Daraya in August, following the surrender of rebels, was branded as “ethnic cleansing” by some opposition sources, pointing out the suburb is now virtually empty after the Syria government ended its siege. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was shown by Syrian state TV defiantly praying in the city on Monday to mark the beginning of the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha.

“The forcible evacuations raise a number of issues beyond the fact that people are often moved to other besieged areas: these mass evacuations contribute to what has become a clear policy of demographic engineering by the government of Syria,” Valerie Szybala, the executive director of the Syria Institute, told Middle East Eye.

“Syria is already overwhelmed with a massive IDP [internally displaced person] crisis, and people displaced in this manner are very vulnerable to human rights violations such as enforced disappearances or military conscription.”

The al-Waer district of Homs was singled out in the report as needing the most urgent attention from world powers with a community of almost 100,000 people on the verge of “complete collapse”. It said: “The medical sector has been severely impacted by the intensified siege of al-Waer, with a lack of fuel and medical supplies hampering effective treatment for all conditions.”

The report also warned that civilian deaths are mounting “due to lack of care for conditions like kidney disease”, adding that the government of President Bashar al-Assad rarely allowed medical evacuations of the area.

The report went on to call on the UN and the International Syria Support Group (ISSG), a group of world powers working to find a solution to the crisis, to focus on ensuring free movement of civilians into and out of besieged areas, rather than concentrating on one-off aid convoys.

It also called on the bodies to “follow through on monitoring the implementation of any local ceasefire agreements that it helps to initiate.”

Tense ceasefire

As part of the Russia-US brokered ceasefire, which began on Monday evening, aid convoys are set to roll into some of the worst hit areas. However, uncertainty over the stability of the truce has so far kept aid groups on the Turkey border, although agencies insist they are ready to deploy into Syria quickly.

Monday’s ceasefire was greeted with wariness from the Syrian opposition, but its main umbrella group the Higher Negotiations Committee (HNC) appears to have accepted the ceasefire provided that certain “guarantees” about which groups would not be included were observed.

Russia said on Monday it would continue to target “terrorist” groups during a ceasefire in Syria, which includes the Fatah al-Sham formerly the al-Qaeda linked Nusra Front, as well as the Islamic State (IS) group.

The deal will be backed by “the largest groups,” including Ahrar al-Sham, despite the latter voicing concerns over the viability of the deal and initially appearing to reject it.

As of Tuesday, the truce appeared to be holding, but analysts have warned that the ceasefire is likely to remain shaky while the international community is unable to punish violations.

“I believe [US] Secretary [of State John] Kerry noted at Friday’s press conference that the deal requires ‘unimpeded and sustained humanitarian access to all of the besieged and the hard-to-reach areas.’ Priority for the besieged areas should be to focus on making this statement a reality,” said Szybala.

“The most effective pressure that could be applied is for the terms of the agreement to actually be enforced, with consequences for violators. The lack of enforcement has been a fatal flaw in previous agreements as warring parties – particularly the Syrian government and its allies – have learned that they can commit violations with impunity.”

READ ORIGINAL HERE